27.09.2011 Prognosis

DJIA

Price has reached the August uptrend support-line at 11.000 points. 

The situation favors two scenarios: 

1) A breach through the 11.000 points line causes an upward movement to 11.400-11.500 points. 

2) A reflection at the support line causes a downwards fall to 10.800 points and further down.

Trading decisions should be made on the first signal of breach or reflection.

DAX

The index started with an up-gap on daily-basis close to the downward-trendline of August. This and the fact that trading today took place in a minimum range (doji-candle) favor the following scenario:

Starting at 5.500 points the price on DAX will drop down to 5.000 points, a significant mark. A breach of this line will start a major sell-off.

GOLD

Yesterday gold opened at the April-high / June-high support-line, closing back above the 2011 trend-line. Opening price today not only was above the 2011 trend-line but also yesterdays high. The CCI (Volatility Indicator for Commodities) shows a significant over-sold sign.

All those facts point to following scenario: 

We will see a rise in gold-price to 1.700-1.800 points. Trades above this mark will drive the price up furthermore. 

Chances are at least 20% higher than risk. Stop-Loss should be at 1.500 points, below the long-time trend.